IB Predicted Grades: How They Work (and How to Raise Them)

Every IB student ends up with two sets of grades. The final grades arrive in July, after exams. But months before that, teachers write down a different set: IB predicted grades. These predictions decide which universities your child can realistically apply to. In the UK, they shape the offers themselves. Yet most families only learn how predictions work when it's too late to change them. This guide explains who sets IB predicted grades, what evidence teachers use, when schools submit them, and — the part students care about most — how to raise them while there's still time.

Quick answer: IB predicted grades are your teachers' forecast of the final grade you're expected to achieve in each subject, based on all the evidence of your work so far. Each subject is predicted on the 1–7 scale. Theory of Knowledge (TOK) and the Extended Essay (EE) are predicted on an A–E scale. Together they give a predicted total out of 45. Schools send predictions to universities with your application — through UCAS for the UK — and separately to the IB itself in the spring before exams. Universities use them to decide whether to make you an offer, so they matter long before results day.

What are IB predicted grades?

An IB predicted grade is your teacher's prediction of the grade you are expected to achieve in that subject, based on all the evidence of your work and the teacher's knowledge of IB standards. That's the IB's own definition, almost word for word. It's not a hope, a reward, or a motivational nudge. It's a forecast.

Predictions cover the whole Diploma Programme, not just the six subjects:

The TOK and EE letter grades combine into up to 3 bonus points. Add those to the 42 subject points and you reach the famous 45. If the maths behind that number is fuzzy, our guide to how the IB points system works walks through it step by step.

One more thing worth knowing early. You never submit predicted grades yourself. Only your school can send them — to universities and to the IB. Some schools tell students their predictions. Others keep them private until the application goes in. Ask your IB coordinator which policy your school follows.

Who sets your predicted grades — and what do they look at?

Your subject teachers set your predicted grades, one prediction per subject, and your TOK and EE supervisors predict those components. Schools then collect everything centrally, usually through the IB coordinator, before anything is sent out.

Teachers don't guess. The IB asks them to predict "as accurately as possible, without under-predicting or over-predicting". To get there, most teachers weigh the same pile of evidence:

• Mock exam results. For most schools, this is the single biggest input. Mocks are sat under real exam conditions and marked against real IB standards.

• Class tests and end-of-topic assessments across the whole course so far.

• Internal Assessment (IA) work. The IA is the coursework project worth roughly 20–30% of the final grade in most subjects. A strong draft signals a strong final grade.

• Homework, essays and classwork — the everyday evidence of how you handle the subject.

• Your trajectory. A student who climbed from 4s to 6s across a year looks different from one who slid the other way, even if their averages match.

To keep predictions honest, teachers lean on the IB's grade descriptors. These are official descriptions of what a 7, a 6, a 5 and so on actually look like in each subject group. The IB says descriptors exist partly to help teachers "make candidate grade predictions". In other words: your teacher compares your work against the official picture of each grade, not against the student sitting next to you.

Every school runs this slightly differently. Some average your last three assessments. Some weight the mocks heavily. Some hold grade meetings where teachers defend each prediction. That's why the smartest first move is simply asking each teacher: "What evidence do you use for predictions, and when do you finalise them?"

When are IB predicted grades set and submitted?

Predicted grades are usually finalised in the first term of your second IB year, because that's when university deadlines land. Here's the timeline for a student taking final exams in May 2027 and applying to UK universities for 2027 entry:

Two details trip families up. First, the school's own internal deadline is always earlier than the UCAS one, because counsellors need time to write references and check forms. Second, the predictions sent to universities and the predictions sent to the IB are collected at different times — autumn for universities, spring for the IB. A student who improves between October and April can genuinely earn a higher prediction in the second round, but universities will have already seen the first one.

Students in November-session schools (common in the Southern Hemisphere) follow a mirrored version of this calendar, with final exams in November and results in early January.

What are IB predicted grades used for?

Predicted grades do three different jobs: they power university offers, they inform scholarship decisions, and they act as a quality check for the IB itself.

1. University offers — especially in the UK. UK universities make conditional offers based largely on your predicted grades, your personal statement and your reference. The prediction gets you the offer. The final result decides whether you keep it. Competitive courses filter hard on predictions: Oxford's standard IB offers sit around 38–40 points, and Cambridge's around 40–42. A student predicted 34 is very unlikely to receive either offer, whatever their final exams might have brought.

2. US and other international applications. US universities don't usually make conditional offers. They admit you based on your transcript, essays and test scores — and your school's report, which typically includes predicted IB grades where available. Offers are rarely withdrawn, but a serious drop between prediction and final result can prompt a college to ask questions, so the final stretch still counts.

3. The IB's own checks. Schools must also send predictions to the IB before every exam session. The IB uses them as a reference point in its processes — for example, when reviewing cases of suspected academic misconduct or applications for adverse-circumstances consideration. The IB also states plainly that it "takes measures to work with schools that consistently under- or over-predict student grades". Predictions even took centre stage in May 2020, when exams were cancelled worldwide and the IB awarded grades using a model built on coursework marks, predicted grades and school context. That was an emergency, not the norm — but it shows how seriously the IB treats the numbers.

How accurate are IB predicted grades?

Predicted grades are informed estimates, not guarantees — and they tend to run optimistic. Analyses by IB tutoring organisations suggest that only around half of individual subject predictions match the final grade exactly, and that when teachers miss, they over-predict more often than they under-predict.

The IB works to keep predictions realistic. It publishes grade descriptors so teachers can anchor predictions to standards. It gives schools a free Predicted Grades Analysis Tool that compares past predictions with actual results. And it follows up with schools whose predictions drift too far, too often, in either direction.

For context, it helps to know what real results look like. In May 2025, the average diploma score worldwide was 30.58 points, and 81.26% of candidates earned the diploma. So a predicted 38 isn't just "a good number" — it's a prediction that you'll finish ahead of the vast majority of IB students on the planet. Teachers know this, which is why predictions at the very top are guarded so carefully.

Where do predictions most often go wrong? Two places. Students who peak early sometimes get generous predictions that final exams don't support. And students who start slowly are sometimes predicted below what they achieve, because the early evidence dominated. If you're in the second group, the fix is to generate new evidence — more on that below.

Predicted grades vs final grades: which one counts?

Both count, but at different moments. Predicted grades open doors; final grades decide whether you walk through them.

If your final result lands below your offer condition, all is not lost. UK offer conditions are often set below the predicted score, so a small slip can still meet the offer. Universities sometimes accept near-misses anyway, especially if you missed by one point. If not, UK students enter Clearing, where courses with spaces recruit directly. You can also request an enquiry upon results — a re-mark of your externally assessed work — though the grade can move down as well as up. And as a last resort, the IB allows retakes: a candidate gets a maximum of three exam sessions to complete the diploma.

If your final result beats your prediction, congratulations — you're in good company, and nothing bad happens. The higher number is yours forever. Where teachers pitch predictions carefully, plenty of students clear them.

How to raise your IB predicted grades: 7 practical steps

You can influence your predictions — not by asking nicely, but by changing the evidence teachers see. Here's what actually works.

1. Learn your school's prediction rules first. Find out what evidence counts, how it's weighted, and the exact date predictions are finalised. You can't hit a deadline you don't know exists.

2. Treat every mock like the real thing. Mocks are the heavyweight evidence in almost every school's system. Revise for them the way you would for finals — past papers, timed conditions, mark schemes. Our guide on how to score a 7 in IB subjects lays out the full method.

3. Get your IA work in early and strong. A polished IA draft is hard evidence of final-exam quality, and it's one of the few components fully in your control. Weak drafts quietly drag predictions down.

4. Build an upward trend, visibly. Teachers predict trajectories, not just averages. Two strong test results in a row late in Year 12 can outweigh a wobbly start. Consistency in the final term before predictions is worth more than a brilliant week in September.

5. Ask each teacher one direct question. Try: "What would you need to see from me to predict a 6 instead of a 5?" Now you have a target, a witness, and a teacher who knows you're serious.

6. Fix the weakest subject first. One extra point in your weakest subject lifts your total exactly as much as one in your strongest — and it's usually far easier to find. If a subject like Math AA or AI is the anchor, targeted 1-on-1 help from an IB Math tutor in the run-up to mocks moves predictions faster than general revision.

7. Set targets with real numbers. Check the IB grade boundaries for your subjects to see how close you are to the next grade, then add up scenarios with our free IB score calculator. Students who know a 6 is three marks away revise differently from students who just feel "not great at Paper 2".

What if you think your predicted grade is wrong?

Raise it with the teacher — calmly, early, and armed with evidence. Predictions are school decisions, and schools can review them. There's no IB appeals process for a predicted grade, so the conversation happens entirely inside your school.

The approach that works looks like this. Book a proper time to talk, don't ambush the teacher after class. Bring specifics: recent test scores, your IA draft feedback, marked work that shows the higher standard. Ask what the prediction was based on, listen to the answer, and ask what evidence would justify moving it. If a genuine disagreement remains, the IB coordinator is the next step — most schools have an internal review route for exactly this.

What doesn't work: negotiating without new evidence, or having a parent demand a number. Teachers must be able to defend every prediction against IB standards, and the IB follows up with schools whose predictions prove unreliable. A teacher who inflates one prediction without evidence risks every future student's credibility. Change the evidence, and the number follows.

FAQs: IB predicted grades

What are IB predicted grades?

IB predicted grades are your teachers' forecast of the final grade you're expected to achieve in each subject, based on all the evidence of your work and the teacher's knowledge of IB standards. Each subject is predicted from 1 to 7, TOK and the Extended Essay from A to E, giving a predicted total out of 45. Schools send them to universities with your application and to the IB before exams.

Who decides IB predicted grades?

Your subject teachers decide them, one prediction per subject, with TOK and EE predicted by their supervisors. The school's IB coordinator collects and submits everything. Students and parents can't set or submit predictions — but students can influence them through mocks, IA work, and classroom evidence.

When do schools submit predicted grades to universities?

For UK applications, schools finalise predictions in the autumn of the final IB year. For 2027 entry, applications to Oxford, Cambridge and most medicine courses must reach UCAS by 15 October 2026, and most other courses by 13 January 2027. US-bound students' schools typically include predictions in reports sent between November and February.

Do universities see my predicted grades?

Yes. In the UK, predicted grades go to UCAS with your application and are a major factor in whether you receive a conditional offer. In the US and much of Europe and Asia, they appear in the school report or transcript that accompanies your application. Universities compare them directly against their typical entry scores.

How accurate are IB predicted grades?

They're close but imperfect. Analyses by IB tutoring organisations suggest around half of subject predictions match the final grade exactly, with over-prediction more common than under-prediction. The IB monitors accuracy, provides schools with a Predicted Grades Analysis Tool, and works with schools that consistently predict too high or too low.

Can I ask my teacher to raise my predicted grade?

You can ask for a review, and the best version of that is a calm conversation backed by evidence — recent test results, IA feedback, marked work at the higher standard. Ask what the prediction was based on and what would justify changing it. Teachers can't inflate predictions without evidence, because they must defend them against IB standards.

Do IB predicted grades matter for US universities?

Yes, but differently than in the UK. US colleges admit on the whole file — transcript, essays, activities, test scores — and predicted IB grades appear in your school's report as part of that picture. There's usually no points-based conditional offer. Offers are rarely withdrawn, but a large drop in final results can trigger questions.

What happens if my final grades are lower than my predicted grades?

Usually less than students fear. UK offer conditions are often set below the prediction, so a small slip can still meet the offer, and universities sometimes accept near-misses. If not, options include Clearing in the UK, an enquiry upon results (a re-mark, which can move grades up or down), or retaking — the IB allows a maximum of three exam sessions.

Does the IB see my predicted grades?

Yes. Schools submit predicted grades for every candidate to the IB shortly before each exam session — in April for May exams. The IB uses them as a reference in its checks, including academic-integrity reviews and adverse-circumstances cases, and it tracks how accurately each school predicts over time.

Are TOK and the Extended Essay predicted too?

Yes. The IB requires predicted grades for Theory of Knowledge and the Extended Essay, on the A–E scale, alongside the six subject predictions. Together TOK and EE control up to 3 bonus points, so weak core predictions can pull a predicted total down even when subject predictions are strong.

Can predicted grades change after they're submitted?

The set sent to universities generally can't be changed once your application is in. But schools collect predictions more than once — early working grades, the university set in autumn, and the final set for the IB in spring. Strong new evidence between rounds genuinely moves the later numbers, which is why the final term of Year 12 and the first term of Year 13 matter so much.

What is a good IB predicted score?

It depends on the target. The worldwide average final score was 30.58 in May 2025, so anything above 34 is comfortably strong. Selective UK courses typically want predictions of 36–38, Oxford's standard offers sit around 38–40, and Cambridge's around 40–42. For US applications there's no cut-off — the prediction works alongside the rest of your file.

Educifly's IB specialists have coached students 1-on-1 since 2018 — 500+ students, with an average grade-band lift of 1.4. If your child's predicted grades need to climb before applications go in, a free trial class is an easy first step.